Eng 人物

Olav Chen: the economist who grows up in the restaurant

“走进华裔二代”系列迎来第三位人物Olav Chen。关注挪威经济的人应该对他并不陌生,Olav Chen是一位在挪威备受尊敬的投资经理人,经济评论人士,经常活跃在挪威的各大媒体上。
通讯发行联系人徐桴忠与Olav Chen的父亲陈祖亮同为上海人,并保持多年联系。得益于这层关系,通讯有机会在Olav Chen的工作间隙获得采访机会。采访之前,通讯向在挪威的华人群体征集了大量的采访问题,并从中选了一部分对他进行采访,在这里对设计采访问题的人们表示感谢。通讯继续鼓励并欢迎广大的华人朋友推荐有故事的华人。

C:UsersgangchDropbox北欧华人通讯通讯稿件201606采访olav chenOlav Chen.jpg

人物档案
姓名:Olav Chen 陈杰
年龄:39
公司:Storebrand
职务:投资经理人,经济学家,媒体评论人
教育:奥斯陆大学(UiO),伦敦政治经济学院(LSE)
工作领域:投资管理

T:
I see you are the senior portfolio manager at Storebrand. Could you give us a short and simple brief introduction about your job, in a language that ordinary people can understand? For example, what does Storebrand do, what is your position about, what do you do daily?

Olav Chen(以下简称O):

I am still the portfolio manager, but also the head of so called the group of asset allocation, I will explain to you what that is later. So Storebrand is the biggest private life insurance company in Norway, both present in Norway and Sweden.  We have a lot of assets. Actually we are the biggest private asset manager, bigger than DNB in Norway when it comes to asset. My responsibility is to invest the pension money that we get from people from their work, invest them and generate returns, so when people retire, they get more money than they put in.
You can put your money in a bank, but today you get very little interest. Or if you put your money in a safe, you get nothing. Actually if you consider and take into account the inflation, you are losing. So we have to invest pension money in risky asset, like equities, bonds, or real state which is also a big part of Storebrand asset management. My role is to allocate between equities, bonds and banks. They have different risk scales. If equity goes up, I should take money from bond or bank, and put into equity, so I have more equities. Everyone knows that equity can fall, so before it falls, I should sell equity out, and put into bank or bond. That is what called asset allocation. I invest pension money where I can get best returns risk adjusted.

T:
Does Storebrand have any investments in China? And in which area?
O:
The equity share of the assets usually has a small part in emerging economics like BRICS countries. A share of the equity part, about 10% of them are usually in the emerging market. But the equity share goes up and down so I move the money around. China is part of that 10%,around 5%. Among the 5%, mostly is in HK, very little in Mainland China. But I think in the future more and more will be in mainland.  You know, from this year, China opens the capital markets, so everyone can invest in China equity market. Before they had capital control, but they are opening gradually. So we probably will invest more as well. But today is very small.  China is more important in other aspect like global demand. Chinese economy is more important topic when people are talking material demanding, for example like oil which is very depending on China. You remember last year, everyone was watching at China, as people are talking hard landing.

C:UsersgangchDropbox北欧华人通讯通讯稿件201606采访olav chenZT5A1024.JPG

T:
Talking about hard landing, you have been the Co-author of a book named “The Chinese Economy”, and in the early this year, you commented that China is unlikely to have a hard landing; do you still hold same opinion? And why? Pål Ringholm however holds opposite view.

O:
You have done quite some research. He has pessimistic view. I think the chine’se government has more control on the economy than the western world.  I still hold the same opinion. There is no hard landing, but you always have to define what a hard landing is. People have speculating hard landing in China without it really happening. Every year they talk about a hard landing, but it never happens. I think the easy part of economic growth is behind us.  You cannot double your size every several years, right? It has come to a level where it gets more difficult to grow.
Since I have the culture background and visit China regularly, I know more about the people and historic development in China. I think the historic part is underestimated when you look at economics in China. Most people analyze china economic wrong because they use the western framework on China. And that does not work.  I think that is the problem when they try to analyze. They also miss the context, or the historic part. China economy has been shrinking over the last hundred years. China economy has always been a big share in the world in the history, but when people look at China economy they start from the past 30 years, not from the past 200 years.
When I visit China in 80s, you could see the big difference of living standard between China and Norway. China was very poor at that time. Actually I do not think the western world can understand how poor china was in that time. I have actually seen the development. I still remember that in the Nanjing road, there was department store No 1, which was a very communistic approach. When you go there, you do not get any service, very few products available. So, china comes from a very low point to now. If you look at Shanghai now, it is like New York or Hong Kong. But the average income level or GDP per capita is still lower
So you have to be there to understand the change. My family used to have apartment in Nanjing Road, where 8 people share small department. But now, they have been replaced with skyscrapers.

T:
From 1 of October this year yuan has been into the IMF reserved currency basket, what does that mean to yuan.

O:
It is most symbolic. It does not change anything, not big practical significance.
When China has become so big now, they have to let the currency be more flexible. Until recently they have linked the currency closely to the dollar. Also the capital should be more flexible, because if you do not have capital movement, you cannot have perfect flexible exchange rates.

T:
You have a master degree in economics, and you have now been working in economics for 15 years, so why are you interested in economics?

O:
It is coincidence. I studied mathematics in university because I was quite good at that.

T:
Chinese in general are quite good in mathematics

O:
Yes, that could be true. After the high school, I wanted to continue with higher education, so I went to university. I wanted to choose the subject that I am interested in, so I had bachelor in math. But when you go advanced in math in master, it becomes more theoretical. I am more practical person and I did not see any fun in it. On the other hand, I did not want to start something totally new, then my previous time in math is a waste. That is why I jumped to economics, so I can use the math as a tool to understand something else.

T:
So it pure interest, not something planned by parents.

O:
No, it is not planned by parents, it is natural development.

T:
Let’s turn to Norway.  Oil has great impact on Norwegian economy, but, since 2014, there has been big drop on the price, what do you think is the reason for this? Will the price go up again and when?

O:
The price has already bottom out. If you go back to the Feb, it was 27. That was the bottom, now it is around 50. So it is almost double of the bottom.

T:
Will it continue growing?
O:
No, I think it will be quite stable for some time at this level. When the price was 110, I think that was a wrong level. That has been dramatic for Norway. If you go back to 2013, the oil price was 110, and it fell to 27 this year, that is a huge fall. China was the cause of the price going up. In 2001, china joined WTO, and China has been demanding oil all the time since then. So the demand of oil has been increased every year since 2001.The demand comes first and fast, but the supply comes gradually and later. So now there are too much oil, but the demand is about the same as before. So it is a simple story of demand and supply. Now in US, since the price is very low, they close the production of oil. It costs 70 to produce one barrel, so they do not have any profit. If the price goes up than 70, they can produce again. So there is a limit of how much the price can go. So I do not think the price will go up to 100 in the foreseen future, unless there is geographic things happened, such as war.

T:
Even though Norway is a heavy oil economy, the economy is not as bad as expected. For example, the unemployment has fallen last year. Some pointed out it could be due to the fact many foreign workers are leaving Norway. What do you think is the reason?

O:
I think there are several reasons. Norway has been very lucky all the time. But I have to admit that the government of Norway has done a very good job. Because when the price was high before, they did not use all the money. They saved lot money to the fund, so it did not get much inflation. When the situation gets bad, they use that money to stimulate the economy, for example, during finance crisis, euro crisis, and early this year. That is one thing, the other thing is that Norway has so called flexible currency, when the oil price dropped, the currency dropped as well, so it is cheaper. For example, there are more tourists in Norway, which also helps the economy. Also, Norway can export more fish, because the Kroner are cheaper. The labor market is flexible, for example, more Swedish are going back to Sweden. In Norway, people think they are rich, so they are not scared, they are still consuming as before, that is another reason.

T:
Bernie Sanders once pointed to Nordic countries as the model for his vision of an ideal American future, he said, “I think we should look to countries like Denmark, like Sweden and Norway, and learn what they have accomplished for their working people.” What is your view toward his comment?

O:
People say it as the Nordic model. There are different reasons. First they are small countries. It is easier to manage the small countries than bigger countries. And they are rich countries. Also, it is because the stability of institution. You do not see big political turmoil in those countries. And the trust level in Nordic countries between people is very high. It is totally different than china. That gives you much less frictions in the economy which I think is a big factor. Not like Greece and Spain, they still suffer from the European crisis. There they have lower trust level, and more corruptions. There are also huge female participation in the labor market as well, which I think is important. Also, there is high taxation and welfare system in Nordic countries. You get free education and healthcare. If you lose the job, you get money from the government. So there are different factors that make Nordic countries as the Nordic model.

T:
Trump has surprisingly won the election, so what do you think is the impact on China-US and Norway-US economy, or in general to the world economy?

O:
I think it is too early to say. Even though Trump has signaled harder trade deals with China, I think he will be pragmatic. For Norway, I think people also are uncertain, especially about Nato and Russia relationship。

T:
Another surprising thing for me is that the housing price has been increased rapidly in some part of Norway, for example Oslo. Considering the low oil price, why this happens?  Will the price continue growing? When do you think there will be an inflection point or change point?

O:
The oil price impact is very regional. If you look at Stavanger, the housing price has been dropping. But it did not affect the whole country.  The unemployment rate in Oslo has been dropping and the labor market is still very strong. Also the interest rate has fallen a lot. It is almost 0 now. So people are putting their money into the house like in China. The third thing in Oslo is because the housing supply is very slow. Oslo is in the process of urbanization. People are moving to Oslo. For example, 10 years ago, the population is about 400000, but now is 600 000, it has increased quite a lot. The urbanization is fast. But Norway is very slow when it comes to infrastructure. Chins is the opposite. China is very fast, but Norway is very slow. They are very slow in building transportations infrastructure and apartments. And they have nature protection, and they do not want to build in forest. There are very strict regulations toward building department.

T:
Do you think it will keep growing like this?

O:
I do not think that is sustainable. It is very difficult to predict. I think the growth rate has to come down. But I do not think it is going to collapse either. As long as the interest rate is so low, and people have jobs, people will continue buying.

T:
Do you think it is a good time for me to buy another one?

O:
Yes, I think so, if you want to buy a bigger one.

T:
You are a portfolio manager, so what is your personal investment?  I mean do you buy equity, apartment, or antiques?

O:
Because I am a portfolio manager, there is very strict inside the rules, so I can’t buy equities. You have to report everything you buy.

T:
everything, even a car?

O:
No, but when it comes to equities, I have to be very careful. If I have to buy, I need to seek permission first. If a company is trading in this equity, I can’t trade. It’s strictly prohibited. I don not do antiques as well.  However, I can have my own funds. I have an apartment, but I am not speculating, I still want to buy more, I still need more space. Last year I bought a hytte-apartment in Kragerø.

T:
OK, enough for the hard questions, let´s talk about your personal life. What is your future plan?  Would you like to make a big number of money and get retired, or you would like to devote to this job in the future?

O:
Of course the whole purpose is to earn enough money so you don’t need to work too much. I think it is everyone’s dream. However, if you don’t work, you can get bored very fast, so I think it’s a good thing to have your own interests. In my job, I am interested in what is happening. Everything matters for my job so I never have a boring day. Everyday is a different day to me, for example, last year, was China, this summer, Brexit and now it’s American president election…all the new things, always interesting. There’s not a single routine day in my job, and I think this is the most interesting part of my job.

T:
Have you ever thought about what to do after retirement? Or maybe it is too early for you?

O:
Yes, it’s too early. I never think about that.

T:
What do you do you in your spare time? Any type of book, music, movie?

O:
I try to do some physical exercise. I play football and go to the gym once or twice a week. Last year I bought a boat, so I have been to the Oslo fjord and Kragerø a lot. In winter I go to ski, I have been done more and more cross country ski. It’s a very good training. You can enjoy the beautiful nature in Norway. And then I do snowboarding.

T:
What do you like or not like about China?
O:
I like the energy level in China because of the quick growth. Every time I go back to Shanghai, I could feel the changing. Everyone is moving fast. I mean every year there are new buildings and skyscrapers, that’s the dynamic growth you could feel. I do not like the pollution. Actually I was in India as well in April, and it’s much worse there. I remember I was in Mumbai, too much pollution and poverty. At that time I missed the fresh air and water in Norway. But Shanghai is not that bad, Beijing is worse. You cannot breat, you can feel it in your throat. There are still a lot of corruptions in China, the trust level is low. I think China still has a long way to go when it comes to trust level.

T:
Which Chinese food do you like best?

O:
I don’t have specific Chinese disk that I like, generally speaking, I like all the Chinese food. But I do like fried dumpling, I love all the fried food and dim sum.

T:
Do you also cook at home? Norwegian food or Chinese food?

O:
Yes, and mostly I cook the Norwegian food, but I am very good at making fried rice and spring rolls.

T:
Compare to Oslo, which city do you prefer ( to work or to live)?

O:
I like London because I used to live and study there, but it is also very crowded and busy there. Also the living cost is very high. You have to be very rich to enjoy the life there. I like Shanghai and New York also. I love big cities. Meanwhile, I like the size of Oslo, it is very easy to get away and have a weekend trip.

T:
Being in Chinese family usually means working hard. Did your parents require you to work in the kitchen when you were a kid? I know your parents were running a restaurant.

O:
I was starting from peeling potatoes when I was 5 or 6 years old. I also had to wash the dishes also in the restaurant.

T:
Did you have the dish machine?

O:
Yes, but at that time we did not have the drying function, so we had to dry them with cloth. That was very boring. And it was a lot, all the knives, folks, and spoons. That was really boring.  After that, I advanced to kitchen service, and lastly ended up working as waiter as well.
So I mean I started to work since I was a small kid.

T:
Some media have stereotype of Chinese parenting. The “tiger mother” of AMY CHUA obviously has strengthened this.  How do you view the family education given by your parents? In what way they are doing well or not? Do you consider your parents as kind of tiger parents?

O:
Yes, to some extent. But it was not the way like the “tiger mother” that you have to play the piano or the violin. When my parents first come to Norway, it was a poor family, so I don’t think the restaurant could make enough money if we didn’t work hard. The business is very much depended on family labor work. Sometimes there were no customers, but you had to be still there. Sometimes it was too crowded, and you had to be working hard. At that time, to make profit was very important for us. So in that context, there was hard working.  Also my parents always tell me that hard-working gets pay off. This is the typical Chinese way for education. In a Chinese family a kid is told to be best, while in Norway, there is a saying that they do not want children to be different or best. Average is enough and OK. They do not want to have any stars. I think that is the difference between two cultures. In my family, parents say you should be the best, and you can be the best.  They encourage you to be best, and you can be the best if you work hard. But in Norway, it is ok that you are the average, you do not have to be the best as long as you do the best. As long as you try, it is ok, that is the Norwegian saying.

When I went to LSE, the environment was different. In the university of Oslo, if you work too hard, working in the weekend, you are considered as nerd. When you go to London, the heroes are those work hardest and people who fell sleep in the library. They are the best student and heroes. If you go to UiO, people who are reading most, they are not heroes, people who have a lot of parties, and look cool; they are the heroes, not necessary with people who work hardest.  London is more international, and more competitive. In Norway, you do not have this level of competition.

T:
I think the Norwegian think that they are doing fine.

O:
Yes. Norway has only 5 million people. In Shanghai, there are 30 million. The competition is enormous. While in Norway, it is nothing.  In China you have to fight to get into the train, otherwise the train goes without you. While in Norway, people have to be civilized, to be in the queue.

 

T: Next question is about the education system. We have seen a lot of education system rankings, and Asian countries like South Korea, Japan, and Singapore always rank in the top of the list.  Norway is among the top 20, but behind those countries. You were educated in Norway, so how do you rate the Norwegian education system? What is bad and what is good?

O:
I think Norwegian education system gives you much more freedom. This is historical and cultural, I think. You probably know that in many of the Asian countries, it is more hierarchy. Teacher says something, and everyone has to listen. If you go to the Norwegian classrooms, the kids are making noise, disrespecting, not disciplined, and they do not have much respect to the teachers either, so I think that is the difference. But I think there are both pros and cons. If you have to be creative and innovative, I think actually the western system in Norway has a comparative advantage, because there have more options, and they can think outside of the box.  While I think China and some Confusion style culture, it is more like box-in and it is much more difficult to think outside of the box. So what you are told is right, and you should never discuss or think otherwise. In Norway, based on the democracy, there are more discussions. I think it is the same in the work as well. You can even see the difference between Sweden and Norway, just between these two countries which are very like. Because traditionally Sweden has a more hierarchy, due to history of a bigger industry-nation. When the boss says something, you have to do it. But in Norway, you have to do it as well, but you have to also discuss it and see whether it is right or wrong. You are actually expected to do that. I think that is the same thing you can see from the school also. You have room to be creative and innovative. If you go back to China, if the economy needs to be moved to next level, you can’t copy things all the time. Until now China is easily copying things of the Western style, making TV and copying technology. If you want to go to next step, and want to really have super power, you have to be more creative and inventing things. So I think this could be a disadvantage to China, but not necessary. Because if you look at Japan, Japan is also hierarchy, but they are very creative and inventing cars, PC, games, so it is not necessary. I think this could be an obstacle of inventing. Japan is even more hierarchy than China, and has been quite innovative when it comes to technology. So it is not directly, but I think there might be some challenges in China. Because you can’t just tell a group of Chinese in a room and find out something new, if everything has been taught from a same person, and there is no rebellion. Look at Apple, Steve Jobs is a rebellion. I mean all the innovations have to be made by people who is rebellion and do not want to do the same things.

关于我们

《北欧华人通讯》是挪威本地唯一发行的华文媒体,也是自1990年起就被挪威国家图书馆收藏的唯一本地华文杂志。时至今日,《北欧华人通讯》已发展成包含纸媒、网站及多个新媒体平台在内的综合媒体。

《北欧华人通讯》立足挪威,专注中挪两地华人关心的问题,受到挪威华人读者的欢迎。

《北欧华人通讯》目前每季度发行一次,每期60到72页,内容齐全,分类严整,整体内容包含时政新闻、北欧生活实用锦囊,北欧人生、人物故事,艺术教育。欢迎您向我们投稿

《北欧华人通讯》是公益组织,欢迎通过银行转账或者Vipps向我们捐款。

银行账号(SpareBank1 Østlandet):
- 1813 25 27977(Nordic Chinese Communication)
- IBAN-nummer: NO0718132527977
- SWIFT/BIC for SpareBank 1 Østlandet: SHEDNO22
Vipps账号:
- 586770(Nordic Chinese Communication)



%d bloggers like this: